Jersey Midterms Battle 2026

Chukwuka

Welcome back to The New Sentinel, everyone. Chukwuka here, and today we're talking Jersey—specifically, the absolute madhouse that is NJ-11 right now. If you've been following, you know Rep. Mikie Sherrill bowing out set off a chain reaction. We've got not just one but two elections this cycle—one special, one regular. I mean, only in New Jersey, yeah?

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

It’s about as Jersey as it gets, Chuck. Mikie Sherrill stepping down put a bomb under Essex and Morris County politics. Suddenly, every local heavyweight—and a dozen folks nobody’s heard of—want a seat at the table. And look at these frontrunners. Tahesha Way, Lt. Governor, backed by that full-throttle Murphy machine—she’s got a war chest, almost $1.2 million raised, big statewide name. She’s not sneaking in the back door, she’s coming through the front with a marching band.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

And you’ve also got Tom Malinowski, the ex-congressman. His resume overlaps the district, he’s stacking up endorsements, about $750,000 raised and a half-million still ready to go. But what’s fascinating—Cammie Croft stands out as the anti-corruption progressive, clean energy CEO, not as flush as the others but funded by that energized grassroots network. Then Brendan Gill—classic Essex party operator, county commissioner, deep connections, if lighter in the bank at $250,000. Still, the Essex machine can stretch a dollar, that’s for sure.

Duke Johnson

It’s like a battalion—four top-tier, then you got your mayors, council guys, and local vets scraping together what, fifty grand, maybe a hundred if they're lucky? I’m telling you, only 3 or 4 are making it into the endzone. Rest are casualties of war, sorry to put it that way. Those machines—Murphy, Essex—they play smash-mouth football, not touch.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Yeah, and it feels familiar. You know, I remember a county race back in, oh what was it, 2003… guy had the people on his side, busted his tail on the ground, but the fella running with the cash and the biggest last name just steamrolled him. Shot clock’s running no matter how scrappy you are. Is it just me or is this playing out the same way—money, machines, headlines, and the others left playing catch-up?

Chukwuka

Major, I’m with you. It’s like, so many names but really only three, maybe four, counting by whose poster you see most. The special election’s gonna be a sprint, right? It’s not just the money, but who’s got the phone banks ready, the donor lists, the runners handing out flyers. We keep saying it, democracy isn’t always a fair fight, especially in Jersey—and this time, it’s looking closer to a rugby scrum than a debate. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, because behind those frontrunners, there’s another competition shaping up. Let’s talk money machines.

Duke Johnson

Alright, let’s break this down, boots-on-the-ground style. If you ain’t got a war chest, you’re roadkill. Way and Malinowski are sitting on eighty percent of the primary cash and practically all the big endorsements. That’s not just luck, that’s organization—Murphy’s machine, Essex machine… whatever you call it, it’s an old playbook but still works. That gives them pre-built muscle come Election Day.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

But is it fair? Look at what grassroots progressives face. Someone like Cammie Croft has the movement—anti-corruption, clean energy, actual policy ideas, passion. But when you pit her energy against these entrenched county operators who absorb media coverage and vacuum up funding—well, it’s like running a marathon in quicksand. From my reporting, I've seen activists in Essex and Morris struggling to even get a press mention, let alone raise a few hundred thousand dollars. They knock doors all day, but the establishment sweeps most of it up. It’s hard—it really is—for a local voice to break through unless there’s a scandal or a dramatic shift.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

You know, Olga, that reminds me of last year’s statehouse race. Energetic, grassroots team, trying to reach voters in ways the old party never did. And yet, the day the machine sponsor dropped in with TV ads and heavy hitter surrogates, tides turned overnight. It's like tactical air support showing up after infantry already in the trenches. Unless something happens to really shake the system, the cash-loaded candidates with the big endorsements have the edge—every time.

Chukwuka

And let’s not forget, charity doesn’t win primaries. If you don’t have the mayor, the county line, and a few unions behind you, might as well be whistling in the wind. I mean, maybe a miracle—what was it, Olga, that South Orange mayor, Sheena Collum, $120,000 raised or so? She has the progressive Essex piece but not the muscle, not enough to go toe-to-toe with the machine. It’s a numbers and operations game. Cold as it sounds.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

Exactly, and that has real consequences—people drop out, voices get lost. I think about the activists who put everything on the line for real change only to be squeezed out by insiders who treat these races as their inheritance. Local democracy is so much more fragile than people realize, even here.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

And what does it say for NJ-07? The Democrats fighting for a flip—same headline there. Top folks like Way and Malinowski controlling the money and the narrative, again. Hard to see an upset, unless folks really wake up at the local level.

Chukwuka

Now, let’s flip the table and look at the Republicans—because honestly, what’s happening in North Jersey? NJ-11, Joe Hathaway’s the only declared Republican, running unopposed so far. The cash pile is, I’ll give him credit, not bad for a lone wolf—about $200,000, right? But every analyst is chalking this up as a safe D seat, especially with all those Democratic dollars. So—does Hathaway even have a puncher’s chance, or is he just a name on the ballot?

Duke Johnson

That’s what gets me, Chuck. Hathaway’s easy to write off, but you never count out the guy with nothing to lose. I remember, what was it, that time in Kandahar, third tour—local militia with no gear, barely any comms, but they waited until our side got overconfident, then they flipped the script. Look, primary turnout’s declining, folks are bored—if Dems get lazy and Hathaway can churn out his base, who knows? Seen stranger things in politics and on the battlefield. Still, no major GOP challenger in NJ-07. It’s almost eerie. And over in NJ-05, you’ve got a dogpile of GOP hopefuls lunging at Gottheimer, but no breakout. No cavalry on the horizon—yet.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Yup, and when the primaries are uncontested, turnout just tanks. That can open the door for weird upsets. If Dems think it’s a cakewalk, complacency can kneecap them fast. Hathaway, with the Morris GOP line, he may not make the headlines, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if someone like him puts up a close fight April 16th—especially if the regular voters stay home. I might be wrong, but sometimes apathy helps the underdog.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

Agreed, Ethan. And let’s be honest, it’ll take more than just money and machines to restore trust, too. In episode 10, we talked about viral outrage and political apathy—those forces are still swirling this cycle. Even in uncompetitive races, there’s potential for surprises because mood swings can happen fast if something catches fire online or on the ground. It makes you wonder if anyone, machine candidate or outsider, is truly safe anymore.

Chukwuka

Absolutely, Olga. Alright, folks, this Jersey midterm battle is still in the opening rounds, so plenty of twists to come before June—and trust me, we’ll be covering every one of them. Thanks for listening to The New Sentinel. Be sure to join us next time. Duke, Ethan, Olga—always a pleasure sparring with you.

Duke Johnson

Always a good one, team. Stay locked in, and don’t let the machines do all your thinking. Out.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Appreciate the convo, everyone. Keep an eye on those wildcards, Jersey.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

Thanks all. Take care, and remember—local politics always matters, even when it looks predictable. Bye for now.