Weapons, Warnings, and Wagers

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Welcome back to The New Sentinel, everyone. I’m Anjali Mehta, and as always, I’m joined by Duke Johnson. Today, we’re diving into the latest twists in US military aid to Ukraine. Duke, I feel like every week there’s a new headline—first, the June 30th pause on arms deliveries, and then, just a week later, the White House says, “Actually, we’re resuming shipments, including those Patriot missile systems.” It’s a lot to keep up with.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, Anjali, it’s whiplash, honestly. One minute, the Ukrainians are counting on those Patriots to keep the skies clear, next minute, the tap’s off. Reminds me of a time in Afghanistan—supply chain just dried up overnight. We were waiting on a shipment of comms gear, and suddenly, nothing. Whole op had to be reworked. I mean, you can plan all you want, but when the gear stops, you’re stuck. That’s what Ukraine’s dealing with right now.

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That’s a great point. And the official line from the Pentagon was that this was just a “standard review”—they said it wasn’t just about Ukraine, but all US military aid worldwide. But, Duke, do you buy that? Or do you think there’s more going on behind the scenes?

Duke Johnson

Look, I get the need for reviews, but let’s be real—this was about priorities. The administration’s got to balance what’s going out the door with what we need at home. You can’t just keep sending out Patriots and expect the cupboard to stay full. And, you know, when the President says, “We can’t give weapons to everybody all around the world,” that’s not just a talking point. That’s reality. But, man, for Ukraine, that pause had to feel like the rug got pulled out from under them.

Duke Johnson

Absolutely. And then, just days later, President Trump confirms at that dinner with Netanyahu that the US is sending more weapons after all. It’s like, “We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves.” So, the message to Ukraine is, “Hang tight, we’re back on track”—but that uncertainty, even for a week, can really shake a country’s defense posture.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, and it’s not just about the hardware. It’s about trust. If you’re on the ground in Ukraine, you’re wondering if the next shipment’s gonna show up or not. That kind of doubt can mess with morale, planning, everything. I’ve seen it firsthand. It’s a tough spot to be in.

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And that brings us to the bigger question—can the US even keep up with all these demands? Dan Caldwell, who used to advise the Secretary of Defense, wrote that it’ll take years for the defense industry to replace what’s already been sent to Ukraine. And with rising threats in places like Taiwan, there’s this real anxiety about running out of munitions. Duke, how worried should we be?

Duke Johnson

We should be plenty worried, Anjali. I mean, you can’t fight a two-front war with an empty magazine. Caldwell’s right—if you send a Patriot battery to Ukraine, that’s one less for Taiwan, or for us if things go sideways. Elbridge KBY, the new Pentagon policy chief, he’s been hammering this point too. The industrial base just can’t crank out replacements fast enough. It’s not like flipping a switch.

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And it’s not just about the US, right? There’s this whole global chessboard. The Graham-Blumenthal bill is a good example—it would slap sanctions on countries that keep buying Russian oil and don’t help Ukraine. China’s already in the crosshairs, with talk of a 500% tariff on their products if they keep fueling Russia’s war machine. That’s a huge escalation.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, and you gotta wonder if that’s gonna work or just make things messier. Sanctioning China is no small thing. But, look, if you let countries bankroll Russia, you’re just making it harder for Ukraine and for us. Still, if we keep sending out all our best gear, we’re gonna hit a wall. The defense industry’s got to ramp up, or we’re gonna be caught short. And that’s not just theory—I’ve seen what happens when you run out of the good stuff. It’s not pretty.

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It’s a real dilemma. We want to support Ukraine, but not at the expense of our own security or our commitments elsewhere. And if the US arsenal gets too thin, that sends a message to adversaries everywhere. It’s a balancing act, and right now, it feels like we’re walking a tightrope.

Duke Johnson

So, let’s talk about the diplomatic side. President Trump’s been trying to negotiate with Putin—he’s called for a ceasefire, but, honestly, it doesn’t seem to be working. Right after their July 3rd call, Russia hit Kyiv with one of the biggest attacks of the war. Duke, do you think these diplomatic efforts are making any difference, or are they just giving Putin more time to regroup?

Duke Johnson

I’ll be blunt, Anjali—I think it’s mostly theater. Trump keeps saying Putin’s “very nice” on the phone, but then the bombs start falling. Putin’s got his goals, and he’s not gonna stop because we ask nicely. Sometimes, talking just gives the other guy a chance to reload. I mean, I get the need for diplomacy, but you gotta back it up with real leverage. Otherwise, you’re just spinning your wheels.

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Yeah, and the human cost is staggering. I remember covering a war zone—different conflict, but the same story. Civilians just trying to survive, waiting for some breakthrough in talks that never comes. I met a family who’d been displaced three times in a month, and every time there was a glimmer of hope, it vanished with the next round of shelling. That’s what’s at stake when diplomacy stalls or fails.

Duke Johnson

That’s the part that gets lost in all the policy talk. Real people are paying the price. And, you know, as much as I want to see America put itself first, I can’t ignore what’s happening to those folks on the ground. But at the end of the day, if you don’t have a plan that actually changes the other guy’s calculus, you’re just treading water.

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It’s a tough balance—supporting allies, protecting our own interests, and not losing sight of the human impact. We’ll keep following these developments, and I’m sure this won’t be the last time we talk about Ukraine, or the bigger questions around US strategy. Duke, thanks for sharing your perspective—and your stories. Always keeps it real.

Duke Johnson

You bet, Anjali. Always good to hash it out with you. And to everyone listening, stay sharp out there. We’ll be back soon with more. Take care.

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Thanks for tuning in to The New Sentinel. We’ll catch you next time. Bye, Duke.

Duke Johnson

Later, Anjali.