Battlegrounds and Power Plays

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Welcome back to The New Sentinel, folks. I’m Major Ethan Graves, and I’m here with my partner in crime, Duke Johnson. Duke, you ready to wade into the 2026 Senate brawl?

Duke Johnson

Locked and loaded, Ethan. This cycle’s already got more drama than a Texas bar fight. Thirty-five seats up, razor-thin margins, and every candidate’s got a target on their back. Let’s get after it.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Yeah, and you know, after last episode’s deep dive into the “Big Beautiful Bill” and all that Capitol Hill chaos, it’s almost refreshing to talk about a good old-fashioned election slugfest. So, let’s set the table: Republicans are defending 23 seats, Democrats just 12. Dems need to flip four to take the majority. That’s a tall order, but not impossible.

Duke Johnson

Not impossible, but let’s be real—GOP’s got the high ground. They’re sitting at 53 seats, and the map’s mostly red. But, man, some of these races are gonna be knife fights. Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire—those are the big ones. Let’s start with Georgia. You got Ossoff, the Democrat, sitting on a mountain of cash. Eleven million bucks raised, mostly from small donors. That’s no joke.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Yeah, Ossoff’s fundraising game is strong. Over 150,000 first-time donors, if you can believe it. But the real question is, who’s gonna step up on the Republican side? Brian Kemp’s the name everyone’s whispering, but he’s playing coy. He’s got the profile, but he’s not committing yet. You think he jumps in, Duke?

Duke Johnson

I mean, if I was running the op, I’d want Kemp. He’s got statewide chops, won his last race by five points, and he’s not radioactive like some of the other names. But he’s dragging his boots, talking about “downtime” and “due diligence.” That’s politician-speak for “I’ll let you know when I’m good and ready.” If he sits it out, you’re looking at Buddy Carter or Mike Collins. Marjorie Taylor Greene? She’s polling strong in the primary, but the party brass is sweating bullets about her in a general. They don’t want to hand Ossoff an easy win.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Yeah, Greene’s a firebrand, but statewide’s a different animal. And you know, Georgia’s been trending purple, but the GOP still has muscle there. If Kemp jumps in, it’s a toss-up. If not, Ossoff’s got a slight edge, but it’s gonna be close. And, you know, this is one of those races where turnout and ground game could swing it either way.

Duke Johnson

Absolutely. And let’s not forget, Trump’s shadow is all over this. His endorsement still moves the needle in Georgia, but it’s a double-edged sword. Helps in the primary, maybe hurts in the suburbs. That’s the MAGA math right now.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Speaking of Trump’s influence, let’s pivot to New Hampshire. Jeanne Shaheen’s retiring, so it’s an open seat. Chris Pappas is the Dem, and then you got Scott Brown making a comeback. Remember him? Won in Massachusetts back in 2010, then did a stint as ambassador. Now he’s back, and he’s waving the Trump flag pretty hard.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, Brown’s got name ID, and he’s running as a Trump loyalist—border security, deregulation, the whole nine yards. But he’s got baggage. Lost in 2012 and 2014, and folks up there still call him a “carpetbagger.” Pappas is already hitting him as a Wall Street guy and a Trump rubber stamp. New Hampshire’s purple, but it leans blue in federal races. Still, with the right tailwind, Brown could make it interesting.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

It’s a classic Granite State toss-up. Brown’s got the institutional backing, but Pappas has the home-field advantage. And, you know, the GOP’s strategy here is to nationalize the race—make it about Trump’s agenda, not just local issues. But that could backfire if moderates get spooked. Early polling’s tight, and honestly, I wouldn’t bet the farm either way.

Duke Johnson

And you know, Ethan, this is where the party’s identity crisis comes out. Brown’s all-in on MAGA, but New Hampshire’s got a libertarian streak. If he goes too hard right, he could lose the middle. But if he softens up, he risks losing the base. It’s a tightrope, and the Dems are just waiting for him to slip.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

That’s the story in a lot of these races, honestly. Let’s talk Kentucky for a second. This one’s wild—Thomas Massie, the libertarian-leaning Republican, is facing a $45 million primary challenge from Trump-aligned super PACs. They want him out because he bucks party leadership and doesn’t toe the MAGA line. That’s a lot of firepower aimed at one guy.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, Massie’s a pain in the neck for leadership. He votes his conscience, which is great until you’re trying to run a tight ship. Trump’s folks want a loyalist, not a maverick. But here’s the thing—Massie’s got a hardcore base. If they push too hard, they could split the party and hand the Dems an opening. It’s a test of whether there’s still room for dissent in the GOP, or if it’s all MAGA, all the time.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

And that’s not just a Kentucky story. We’re seeing it in Louisiana, too. Bill Cassidy’s getting hammered in the primary for voting to convict Trump in 2021. He’s got challengers coming at him from the right, and the party’s trying to keep the peace without getting their hands dirty. It’s all about enforcing ideological discipline, but there’s a risk of alienating swing voters or libertarians.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, and you know, the Dems are hoping these internal fights give them an opening. But they’ve got their own problems—open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota. No incumbents, and that’s always a risk. Michigan’s especially dicey. Gary Peters is retiring, and the GOP’s got their eyes on it. Elissa Slotkin’s the likely Dem, but the bench is thin. Republicans are licking their chops.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Right, and Michigan’s a Trump-won state. The GOP’s got momentum, and if they can nationalize the race around issues like the border or the economy, they could flip it. But Dems are betting on abortion rights, healthcare, and climate to fire up the base, especially younger and suburban voters. It’s a coin toss, honestly.

Duke Johnson

And don’t sleep on North Carolina or Maine, either. Thom Tillis in North Carolina is vulnerable, especially if Roy Cooper jumps in for the Dems. And in Maine, Susan Collins is tough to beat, but the Dems are still hunting for a strong challenger. If they can’t recruit Governor Janet Mills, it’s probably a GOP hold.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Yeah, and you know, all this comes down to a handful of toss-ups. The Dems’ path to a majority is narrow, but not closed. They need to run the table in the close races and hope the GOP’s internal fights spill over. But the Republicans have the map, the money, and, for now, the momentum. It’s gonna be a dogfight to the finish.

Duke Johnson

And let’s not forget, the stakes are huge. Whoever controls the Senate controls the judges, the executive branch confirmations, the whole nine yards. Trump wants a Senate that’ll back his agenda, and the Dems want to block him at every turn. It’s trench warfare, man. Every seat, every vote, every dollar counts.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Couldn’t have said it better. And, you know, as we’ve seen in past cycles—and as we talked about in our last few episodes—narrative and turnout are everything. The information war, the ground game, the money, the messaging—it all matters. And with the country this divided, every little edge could tip the balance.

Duke Johnson

So buckle up, folks. We’re just getting started. We’ll be tracking every twist and turn as these races heat up. And you know, Ethan, I got a feeling we’re gonna have plenty to argue about before November 2026 rolls around.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

No doubt about that, Duke. All right, that’s gonna do it for this episode of The New Sentinel. Thanks for riding along with us. We’ll be back soon with more deep dives and, probably, a few more disagreements. Duke, always a pleasure.

Duke Johnson

You too, Ethan. Stay sharp out there, folks. Sentinel, I’ll catch you next time.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Take care, everybody. We’ll see you down the road.