Wedgetail Grounded

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Alright folks, welcome back to The New Sentinel. I’m Major Ethan Graves, and I’m here with my partner in crime, Duke Johnson. Today, we’re diving into what’s probably the biggest shakeup in U.S. airborne surveillance in decades—the Pentagon’s decision to pull the plug on the E-7 Wedgetail program. Duke, you wanna kick us off?

Duke Johnson

Yeah, Ethan, this one’s a gut punch. Fourteen billion dollars down the drain, and the E-7 was supposed to be the answer to our aging E-3 Sentry fleet. Now, we’re left with a big ol’ question mark. I mean, the E-3s are dropping like flies—half the fleet’s already retired. And now, no Wedgetail? That’s a hell of a gap.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

It’s wild, right? I remember back in, what was it, 2012? I was running a joint exercise out in the Pacific, and we had an E-3 Sentry overhead. That bird was our lifeline—kept us outta trouble, gave us the big picture. You lose that, you’re flying blind. The Wedgetail was supposed to be the next step, but now, it’s just... gone.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, and the reasons they’re giving—cost overruns, delays, survivability. I get it, the price tag kept climbing, and they were only gonna have two prototypes by 2028. But man, you can’t just yank the rug out. They’re saying the E-7 isn’t survivable anymore, ‘cause of what we’ve seen in Ukraine and China’s anti-access stuff. But you ask me, you still need eyes in the sky.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

That’s the thing. The battlefield’s changing. Long-range missiles, electronic warfare—big, slow planes like the E-7 are juicy targets. But, like you said, Duke, you still need that command and control. The Pentagon’s betting big on space-based ISR now. It’s a huge gamble. And, you know, this isn’t just about tech. There’s politics, too. The Trump administration’s been pushing for “big, difficult decisions,” and this is definitely one of ‘em.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, and let’s not forget the folks in Congress. You got lawmakers from Oklahoma and Washington—places with E-3s and Boeing jobs—raising hell. Rep. Tom Cole’s out there saying, “Space is great, but it’s unknown and undeveloped.” He’s not wrong. We’re ditching something that works, even if it’s old, for something that’s not even ready yet.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

And the E-7 wasn’t just another plane. I mean, you look at what Australia, South Korea, the UK have done with it—those are proven platforms. But the Pentagon’s saying, “Nope, we’re moving on.” It’s a real end of an era, and honestly, I’m not sure we’re ready for what comes next.

Duke Johnson

So here’s the pivot—now it’s all about space. The Pentagon’s throwing money at these AMTI satellites, talking about persistent, global coverage. Sounds good on paper, but I’m not buying it. You ever seen a satellite pull a 17-hour mission over Iraq? Didn’t think so.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Ha, yeah, satellites don’t need coffee or crew rest, but they’ve got their own headaches. The idea is, you get these constellations up there, you can watch everything, everywhere, all the time. But the tech’s not there yet. There’s a real risk we end up with a gap—no E-3s, no E-7s, and satellites that aren’t ready for prime time.

Duke Johnson

Exactly. And you know, I keep coming back to what Rep. Cole said—“space is unknown and undeveloped.” We’re betting the farm on tech that’s still in the lab. What happens if the satellites get jammed, or shot down? You can’t just send a wrench team up there. And in the meantime, we’re stuck with the Navy’s E-2D Hawkeye as a stopgap. That’s a whole other can of worms.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Yeah, the Hawkeye’s a solid bird, but it’s not the Wedgetail. Smaller crew, less range, less capacity. It’s built for carrier ops, not the kind of global command and control the Air Force needs. And integrating it with Air Force systems? That’s gonna be a mess. Plus, you’ve got the whole refueling issue—probe and drogue versus flying boom. It’s like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole.

Duke Johnson

And let’s be real, the Hawkeye’s not gonna keep up with F-22s or B-21s. It’s slower, flies lower, can’t see as far. We’re trading capability for survivability, and I get why, but it feels like we’re just patching holes instead of fixing the roof. And all this, just to buy time until the satellites are ready—if they ever are.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

It’s a classic case of “future-proofing” gone sideways. We’re modernizing, but at what cost? There’s a real risk we end up with less capability in the short term, and maybe even in the long run if the space assets don’t deliver. And, you know, we’ve seen this before—remember the “Big Beautiful Bill” episode? Sometimes, these big shifts don’t play out the way the planners hope.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, and the enemy gets a vote. China, Russia—they’re not sitting still. They’re watching us fumble this handoff, and you better believe they’re planning to exploit any gaps. I just hope we’re not setting ourselves up for a nasty surprise down the line.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Let’s talk about the ripple effects. This isn’t just a U.S. problem. Australia, the UK, South Korea—they’ve all got Wedgetails in service or on order. Now they’re looking at us like, “Are you guys serious?” It’s gotta shake their confidence in joint programs, right?

Duke Johnson

Oh, for sure. If I’m sitting in Canberra or London, I’m wondering if the U.S. is gonna stick with anything long enough to make it work. And Boeing—man, they’re taking it on the chin. Lost contracts, bad press, maybe even layoffs. That’s a lot of jobs in places that can’t afford to lose ‘em.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

And it’s not just about the money. It’s about trust. I remember a NATO exercise a few years back—think it was in Germany. We had U.S., UK, and French AWACS all trying to talk to each other, and it was a mess. Took us hours to get the data links working right. The Wedgetail was supposed to fix that—one platform, everybody on the same page. Now? Who knows. We’re back to square one on interoperability.

Duke Johnson

And the Hawkeye’s not a magic bullet. It’s Navy-centric, so the Air Force is gonna have to spend a ton of time and money just to get it to play nice with their systems. Plus, it’s got half the crew, less range, and it can’t do the same level of battle management. We’re making do, but it’s a step back, no way around it.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

And for the allies, it’s a real curveball. They’ve invested in the Wedgetail, trained their crews, built their doctrine around it. Now the U.S. is walking away, and that’s gonna make ‘em think twice next time we pitch a joint project. It’s not just about planes—it’s about the whole alliance structure.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, and you know, we’ve talked about this before—alliances are only as strong as the trust behind ‘em. If we keep changing course every couple years, folks are gonna start hedging their bets. Maybe they look to Europe, or even go it alone. That’s not good for anybody, except maybe our adversaries.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Couldn’t agree more. Alright, that’s about all the time we’ve got for today. This Wedgetail saga’s far from over, and you can bet we’ll be watching how the Pentagon’s space gamble plays out—and what it means for our allies and industry. Duke, always a pleasure sparring with you.

Duke Johnson

You too, Ethan. Folks, keep your heads on a swivel. We’ll be back soon with more from The New Sentinel. Out here.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Take care, everybody. Stay sharp, and we’ll catch you next time.