Key Races and Voices in the 2025 Elections

Chukwuka

Alright, folks, welcome back to The New Sentinel. Today, we're diving straight into what everybody's got their eye on—the statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia. Now, these are off-year elections, but trust me, the stakes feel just as high as a presidential year for a lot of folks on the ground, especially with all the drama playing out between the moderates and the more, eh, let's say, fired-up corners of both parties.

Duke Johnson

Yeah, Chukwuka, and I've got to say, New Jersey's got this really fascinating contrast, right? Mikie Sherrill, you've got a Navy vet and ex-federal prosecutor, moderate Democrat, pushing things like property tax caps and transparency. She's trying to keep those suburbs blue, and I mean—she's got that Obama endorsement, so that tells you she's the establishment’s candidate here. Polls say she's leading, but... not by a huge amount. Could go sideways fast, like we saw back in my third deployment when a tight race flipped at the last minute over a single scandal. Never bet the house.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

True, Duke. Ciattarelli on the Republican side—he's the business guy, right? Got his MAGA badge since Trump threw his name in. He keeps hitting this message about slashing government spending and cutting property taxes, wants to consolidate agencies, freeze hiring, and end what he calls “pork.” That's classic conservative fuel for suburban voters who feel like they're gettin' squeezed on all fronts. But, uh, his “Stop the Steal” ties from the last cycle kinda scare off the moderates, no question.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

But what I am seeing in New Jersey is, once again, moderates trying so hard not to look too progressive. Sherrill talks about capping taxes and protecting schools—it's competence over passion, but there is a sense her base is, what do you say, lukewarm? Meanwhile, Ciattarelli is banking on the affordability crisis but risks leaning too far in the Trump lane. It’s the same tension—we are seeing it everywhere—and it means voters are asked to pick between what feels safe and what feels disruptive.

Chukwuka

And speaking of disruption, let's shift gears to Virginia—the matchup there is historic, all-female major party clash. Abigail Spanberger, another CIA vet, moderate, solid police union backing, and you see her always talking about bipartisanship, keeping Virginia a “safe haven,” and expanding jobs—especially with federal shutdowns in the backdrop. She leads the polls, but there’s always risk. And, Winsome Earle-Sears is no cookie-cutter politician. Jamaican immigrant, Marine Corps veteran, first Black woman major-party nominee for governor there. Big on hardliner stuff—immigration, tough-on-crime, but she's had this DEI email controversy shaking up her campaign staff, and that's real turbulence. Still, don't rule her out.

Duke Johnson

Man, I gotta admit—when you watch those campaigns up close, especially during deployments or voting from a base, you get a sense for how quick the air can shift. One text scandal, one staff shakeup, and what looked like a done deal is scrambling again. I’m watching those attorney general and lieutenant governor races for the same reason—could swing with basically a bad weekend in the media cycle. These races aren’t just about 2025, either—what happens here is basically a test drive for how both parties wanna pivot in the 2026 midterms. And risk? Look, both these states have just enough chaos brewing that history buffs like me get nervous watching old mistakes repeat.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

That’s right, Duke. And, you know, if you zoom out a bit, you see why these contests matter—it's not just red versus blue. It’s about moderation versus, well, maximalism, I’d say. These moderates are, in a way, trying to anchor their states against tidal waves coming from their parties’ extremes. That tension tells us plenty about where American politics is heading—for better or worse.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

Absolutely, Ethan. The lens of gender and race also cannot be ignored, especially in Virginia—first all-female contest, but also, race is ever-present in the narrative, with Earle-Sears on one side and Spanberger’s “safety” language on the other. It's not just policy that voters are responding to, but identity, representation, and, let’s be honest, how much change they feel comfortable with. That’s a lot of layers for your average voter to process.

Chukwuka

Let’s turn our attention to the urban battlegrounds—New York City especially, where every mayoral contest feels like, well, a referendum on where the whole country’s going. You’ve got Zohran Mamdani, backed by DSA, pushing all-in on rent freezes, new public housing, and sanctuary city policies. His campaign is pure, grassroots urban populism. Ten years ago, this would’ve been laughed off as too far left for the mainstream in NYC. Now he’s leading by double digits. Wild, right?

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

It’s wild, but it’s also, from my perspective, absolutely necessary. The eviction crisis I’ve reported on in Queens—the numbers are heartbreaking. I remember one case this spring, a mother getting her fourth eviction notice in a year, even while working two jobs. Mamdani’s message about housing for all—public units, rent freezes—it isn’t just idealism. There are waves of people looking for something radically different. And he’s up against not just Curtis Sliwa with his law-and-order crusade, but Andrew Cuomo, trying to stage a comeback as an independent, more moderate candidate. It’s generational, it’s class, it’s about who the city is for.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

And these city races aren’t just spectacle. Think about Atlanta—Dickens running unopposed, Boston with that rematch: Wu, the reformer, versus Kraft, more business-friendly. Minneapolis? Frey, the incumbent, fighting off a DSA challenge from Omar Fateh about affordability and policing. And then Seattle, another moderate versus progressive. These become test labs for policy, especially on policing, rent, and education. What gets tried in NYC or Boston can end up nationwide if it gets enough buzz and a couple of wins in the polls.

Duke Johnson

Yeah and what’s interesting, Ethan, is how all this plays with turnout and messaging. Look, NYC is polling left, but that doesn't always translate into radical change unless the movement shows up. We saw after 2024—a little D momentum, right? But progressives overreaching can be their own worst enemy. Gotta say, I’m always cautious when the polling gap feels too comfortable. This ain’t my first 'urban surge,' and those have a way of fizzling if old establishment hands rally last-minute.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

But Duke, these endorsements matter too. Mamdani’s getting backed by AOC, even Sanders. If both New York and Seattle move further left, that impacts national policy debates, especially on housing and policing. You’re right about turnout, but this wave feels different. I mean, it’s not just about personalities—it’s whole networks of activists, mutual aid groups, and new voters energized by transformational promises. Ten years ago, no one would listen to a proposition like ending all developer giveaways. Now? It’s mainstream enough to win.

Chukwuka

Still, I think people want bold, but not scary. If progressives manage to win in both those cities without scaring off the center, that becomes a playbook. We’ll see if all this momentum translates when it really counts—at the polls and then in actually making policy stick.

Duke Johnson

And if not? Well, next cycle’s gonna look real different. City halls will either be models for what’s next—or cautionary tales.

Chukwuka

So, let’s zoom out and see how all these folks—state, city, whatever—are angling on the core issues. Affordability, that’s number one. Every candidate from Sherrill to Mamdani talks about it. Whether it’s capping taxes, cutting spending, or freezing rent, affordability is the glue. But how they sell it? Sherrill goes for “competence,” while a guy like Ciattarelli is promising 30% spending cuts without—supposedly—touching services. If you ask me, that’s easier said than done, but that’s the pitch.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

And then education becomes the big battlefield—think about Spanberger, vetoing book bans and backing anti-discrimination, or Mamdani, who’s challenging the basics of selective programs and instead promises “equity enrichment” for all. Meanwhile, Republicans—Ciattarelli especially—go in on 'parents know best,' pushing charters and voucher expansions. Underneath it, you’ve got this running fight: Is education about parental control, or about leveling the field for marginalized children?

Duke Johnson

Crime and immigration, too. Every cycle they come back, but this year there’s a new flavor. Democrats, especially the moderates, emphasize pathway programs and protecting DACA. Spanberger and Sherrill both pitch this careful, “secure but humane” approach. On the other side, Ciattarelli, Earle-Sears? They want to blow up what they call 'sanctuary' policies, push for stronger local cooperation with ICE, and protect the police at nearly all costs. That’s where you see “back the blue” play out, real hard. You can't ignore how that message lands for people who feel things are out of control, even if the data says otherwise.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

And as a history guy, I can’t help but look back at previous off-year races. Culture-war flashpoints—book bans, reproductive rights, sanctuary cities—always energize the extremes, but it rarely works for both sides at once. The real test for these candidates is can they thread the needle? That is, energize their base without turning off just enough folks in the middle to throw the race. From what the intelligence reports say, risk ratings tell the story: Candidates going too far left or right might get the headlines, but sometimes that's the exact reason they lose. As we’ve seen before, being too safe can backfire, too. Voters get bored—they want a pulse, but not a heart attack.

Chukwuka

And watch the media coverage—lots of coverage is all about the hottest topic, trends, or, lately, whatever goes viral on social. That shapes real voter energy. As we saw with the Mamdani deportation nonsense people were sharing last week, one viral moment can distort the whole race. When you add in scandals, party infighting, or just fatigue with the system, these “fault lines” get more dangerous. Candidates gotta be careful—go too hard and become the headline, play it too safe and get forgotten.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

It is never just about winning—it's about governing after. If progressives overreach and can’t deliver—or if conservatives cut too much and services crumble—voters remember. The stakes stretch into 2026 and beyond. We’re in a moment when every race, even a mayoral contest, feels nationalized. And voters? They’re watching each other’s mistakes, learning, adapting, waiting to see what breaks next.

Duke Johnson

Well said, Olga. And, like always, if you look in the rearview mirror and ignore the blips on the radar, you’re liable to get run off the road. Gotta stay alert heading into November and all the way through to the midterms.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Yeah, and with so many moving parts—state, local, culture wars—we’ll be right here breaking it all down for y’all next time, after the ballots are counted and the dust settles.

Chukwuka

Alright, thanks for listening to The New Sentinel. To Olga, Duke, Ethan—always sharp takes as usual. We’ll be back soon with election fallout, policy consequences, and, of course, whatever new curveballs politics throws at us. Stay safe out there, and see you next time.

Olga Ivanova - Female, Progressive

Thank you, everyone, for joining us. Let’s keep watching these races closely—and fighting for a better tomorrow, no matter where the polls stand.

Duke Johnson

Thanks y’all. Until next time—stay situationally aware, keep your head on a swivel.

Major Ethan “Sentinel” Graves

Take care, everyone. Don’t just watch history—be part of it. Catch you on the next one.